The Outline Business Case (OBC) for taking Edinburgh’s tram service down to Leith and Newhaven has been published on the Council’s website today.

The comprehensive document sets out the findings and recommendations resulting from a 20-month programme of very detailed work assessing the benefits, impact and likely timescales and cost of completing the remaining 4.6km of tramline 1A.

The OBC has been available for councillors to scrutinise in a specially set up Data Room at the City Chambers, with officers and an independent advisor on hand to provide further information or clarify points.

A report accompanying the OBC will now be considered at a special meeting of the Transport and Environment Committee on 4 September, before going to Full Council on 21 September.

The report seeks authority to commence a procurement exercise to identify a potential contractor for the project, with a final decision on whether to go ahead with taking the tram to Newhaven, and with which contractor, to follow in autumn 2018.

Council Leader Adam McVey said: “Edinburgh is growing faster than any other city in Scotland and our current road network and public transport provision simply aren’t sustainable given the number of new residents we’re expecting to welcome here over the next two decades.

“Rather than exacerbating traffic problems on our already congested roads, trams allow far greater numbers of people to travel, while creating employment during construction, boosting development along the route and connecting people to centres of employment, leisure and retail.”

Transport Convener Councillor Lesley Macinnes added: “Given the experience of the last tram project, we’re acutely aware of the need to scrutinise this business case as rigorously as we possibly can – residents deserve nothing less. We won’t take any decision on completing the line to Newhaven until we are 100% confident that the project can be delivered, financed and managed effectively.

“Councillors from all parties have been taking up the opportunity to fully examine the business case over the past weeks and will use this special meeting of the Transport and Environment Committee to quiz officers further on the detail and make a recommendation on whether to progress to the next stage.”

Key points included in OBC:

Rapid population and economic growth
• Over the next decade, Edinburgh and surrounding area expected to be home to faster growing population than anywhere else in Scotland. National Records of Scotland projections published in 2016 suggest city should be planning for an additional 47,000 people by 2024 and additional 102,000 by 2039 (20% increase)
• Number of households forecast to increase by over 38,000 (16%) by 2032. A quarter (25%) of this growth is forecast to occur in Leith Docks and Western Harbour area
• Employment levels in Edinburgh are projected to grow by 7.6% between 2013 and 2022

Costs & benefits
• Capital Cost estimated at £165.2m, including risk and inflation
• Patronage forecast to almost double in opening year to 14m, reflecting high population densities along the route
• For every £1 spent the economic return to the city is £1.64
• OBC includes wider economic benefits, including social inclusion, and completing the line will provide access to jobs and support business and opportunities in the area

Construction work to take three years
• Estimated three-year construction period, including 18 months on Leith Walk, followed by approx four months of testing and commissioning on new line.
• Significant proportion of major utility works have already been carried out – remainder carried out in conjunction with main infrastructure works, meaning no ‘double dig’

Carefully planned traffic management
• Diversions, road closures, access and crossing points thoroughly planned and modelled
• All key stakeholders, including residents, businesses, emergency services and Lothian Buses will be consulted on the traffic proposals set out in the OBC

Support for businesses
• Customer and service access to local businesses maintained at all times
• Compensation and support scheme for affected businesses along the route put in place
• Logistic centres and dedicated crossing points provided at 150-200m centres on Leith Walk
• Logistics officers deployed throughout the day to help businesses with deliveries

Lessons learned
• OBC recommends industry-standard contract with rigorous project governance
• Traffic management would give contractor expanded sites and provide flexibility if problems encountered
• Project would benefit from industry networking with other cities (Manchester, Birmingham, Dublin) to ensure best practice
• Consultation with the market and incorporating input from Tram Inquiry

Scottish Chambers of Commerce has welcomed today’s publication of the second phase report of the Scottish Government’s Enterprise and Skills Review.

However, it has called for close scrutiny of the new agency structure’s achievements over the coming years to ensure quick and effective progress. Liz Cameron, Chief Executive of Scottish Chambers of Commerce, said:

“The Scottish Chambers of Commerce network welcomes the publication of the Scottish Government’s Phase 2 report on its Enterprise and Skills Review. It is vital that the services that businesses receive from Scotland’s public sector are constantly evolving to meet their needs and to help business, and our economy, to grow.

“At a time when the Scottish economy is significantly underperforming that of the UK as a whole, this review has been timely, and this latest set of actions give us much more detail about how the new proposed structure will interface with businesses in practice.

“We welcome the creation of a South of Scotland Enterprise Agency, focused on the particular opportunities, challenges and needs of businesses in Dumfries & Galloway and in the Scottish Borders. We also welcome the strong role envisioned for the Scottish Chambers of Commerce network in terms of building the exporting potential of Scotland’s businesses – which will be an even stronger priority in the post-Brexit landscape.

“What we need to see now is exactly how the private sector can have a role to provide the leadership and guidance necessary to make these new structures work. The new framework must deliver real change for the better in a very short timescale and this must be monitored on a regular basis to ensure that there is material progress in supporting Scotland’s businesses and growing our economy.”

A new report published today [Thursday 15 June] has found that the Borders Railway is attracting new workers, homeowners and tourists to communities served by the line.

The independent study highlights that the service has been a major factor in decisions to relocate to the area, with 50% of users who had moved house and over 80% of those who changed jobs stated that the railway had been a factor in their decision. There was also a tourism benefit, with 23% of visitors stating that they would not have made the trip without the line.

The results will be discussed at the Scottish Transport Summit in Glasgow today during a session on the role of transport in boosting the economy.

Humza Yousaf, Minister for Transport and the Islands said:
“The reopening of the Borders Railway was a momentous occasion for residents along its route, bringing with it economic, education and employment opportunities. This independent report provides solid evidence that the communities along the line are beginning to feel the benefit of our investment. The route’s popularity was already undisputed and we will continue to work with all the Blueprint Group members to ensure that it continues to act as a catalyst for further social and economic regeneration.”

Danny Cusick of Scottish Enterprise, who chairs the Borders Railway Blueprint Group, added:
“This has been a very thorough study and it provides us with valuable insights into how the line is helping the whole region. There’s also a lot we can learn as we progress our shared efforts to maximise the economic, environmental and social benefits of the line. We are determined to build on this success further in coming years to establish the Borders Railway region as an excellent location for business, living, leisure and learning.”

The report, commissioned by Transport Scotland and the Borders Railway Blueprint Group, was carried out by Peter Brett Associates with the aim of evaluating the project’s success a year on from its reopening.

It also examined the impact the line has had on visitor numbers, passenger views of service quality and real and perceived barriers to use for those not using the service.

The key findings including

Social and economic impact:
• 39% of respondents of the user survey were traveling on a tourist day trip or overnight stay. 34% of these were traveling to the Scottish Borders or Midlothian.
• More than 65% of tourist users stated that the rail line was a factor in their decision to make their trip and 23% stated that they would not have made the trip were it not for the line. (In January 2017 a separate report also showed there had been a significant improvement in key tourism performance figures in the first half of 2016, compared to the first half of 2015 when the railway was not yet open.)
• There is evidence that the Borders Railway has affected peoples’ residential choices and choice of workplace, as more than 50% of users who had moved house and over 80% of those who moved employment since the reopening of the line stated that the railway had been a factor in their decision.
• More than 90% of respondents agreed that the railway promoted access between the Scottish Borders / Midlothian and Edinburgh.
• More than 90% agreed that it improved access for those without a car and 85% agreed it encouraged a shift from the car to public transport.
• 79% agreed that it improved access to Edinburgh’s job market.

Service use:
• Commuting is the most common journey purpose. There was also a large volume of leisure users and a considerable number of trips for education. (In December 2016, Borders College reported a 74% increase in applications.)
• Approximately 50,000 (36%) of the estimated annual single trips recorded via the sample were ‘new trips’.
• Passenger numbers are higher than forecast at all Scottish Borders stations and lower than forecast at all Midlothian stations.
• Tweedbank accounts for the biggest component of demand and Edinburgh Waverley is the most frequent destination.
• Overall, there was a high level of satisfaction with the quality of the service.

Modal shift:
• There has been a modal shift from car and bus to rail.
• It is estimated there were 40,000 saved car journeys annually.
• The shift from bus to rail equates to an estimated 22,000 annual bus journeys.

Non-usage and improvements:
• The most popular reason for not using the service was a greater convenience offered by car.
• Lower bus fares, the greater convenience of bus and the use of the National Entitlement Card on buses were also popular responses to why the service wasn’t used.
• 37% of non- and one-off users stated that improvements to the railway would encourage them to use it.
• The most popular improvement requested is lower fares.
• Users were least satisfied with the availability of staff, facilities and services at stations.

The research was carried out before the service improvement plan announced by Scotrail in November 2016 took effect. Since the study, Scotrail has also put in place extra seats on peak-services and, in January 2017, opened a new customer hub at Tweedbank, offering locally-produced refreshments and toilet facilities.

In April, Transport Scotland announced that extending the Borders Railway will be one of the options considered by a new study looking at improving transport provision in the south of Scotland across all modes including road, rail and public transport.

A new campaign – Borders Railway: More Connected – is underway to promote the benefits of working and investing in the area.