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What happened in the property market in 2018? – ESPC data reveals key trends

Posted: 16th January 2019

What happened in the property market in 2018?

ESPC data reveals the key housing market trends for Edinburgh, the Lothians, Fife and the Borders in 2018.

East central Scotland summary

Over the course of 2018, the average selling price of properties across east central Scotland (Edinburgh, the Lothians and Fife) rose to £241,827 compared to £230,483 in 2017, which was a 4.9% increase. However, the average selling price did fluctuate slightly during the year. From July to September 2018, the average selling price of a property in east central Scotland was £250,991, up 6.2% compared to the previous year. However, from October to December 2018, the average selling price was £244,437, which was a 4.4% increase compared to the same period in 2017.

In 2018, the sales volume in east central Scotland dropped by 3.4% compared to the previous year. However, sales volume did also fluctuate throughout the year. From March to May 2018 the number of properties sold decreased by 13.2% annually. However, from October to December 2018 the number of properties sold increased by 9.2% compared to the previous year. The number of homes brought to market in 2018 did increase by 3.4% compared to 2017 – however, again, this fluctuated during the year. From January to March 2018, the number of new listings decreased by 10.1% compared to last year, while between October and December 2018, the number of homes brought to market increased by 23.9% annually.

The increase in the number of new listings at the end of 2018 was particularly significant – October to December 2018 represents the strongest fourth quarter since 2007 in terms of new listings. During these three months, almost every type of property saw an uplift compared to last year, but there’s been a particularly notable increase in the number of two bedroom markets coming to the market with a 27.7% increase compared to the same period in 2017, and most of this growth came from within the city of Edinburgh.

The average percentage of Home Report valuation achieved in east central Scotland in 2018 was 104.2% compared to 103.6% in 2017. Selling times in east central Scotland also remained relatively short, with a median selling time of 20 days in 2018, which is one day longer than in 2017.

Price changes in different areas

In Edinburgh, the average selling price in 2018 was £262,897 compared to £248,215 in 2017, which was a 5.9% increase. Within the capital, two bedroom flats in Stockbridge, Comely Bank, Fettes and Canonmills saw the biggest year-on-year increase in average selling price, rising by 12.5% to £295,167. The average selling price of three bedroom houses in Blackhall, Davidsons Mains, Silverknowes, Cammo and Barnton rose by 12.1% to £393,355.

Outwith the capital, the average selling prices of properties in Dunfermline rose by 8.2% to 166,989 in 2018, while in the wider West Fife and Kinross area, the selling price rose by 8.8% to £173,430. In East Fife, the average selling price rose by 2.6% to £226,784.

In West Lothian, the average selling price rose by 7.5% to £198,618 in 2018. In East Lothian, the average selling price of properties rose by 3.8% to £229,957, while in Midlothian, the average selling price rose by 5.5% to £202,225.

In the Scottish Borders, the average selling price rose by 1.7% to £224,860. The sales volume in the Borders also increased by 6.7% in 2018 compared to 2017.

Fastest sellers, highest Home Report valuation achieved and top sales volumes

One bedroom flats in the areas of Leith Walk, Easter Road, Pilrig and Bonnington, as well as one bedroom flats in Abbeyhill and Meadowbank boasted the shortest selling times of 2018 in east central Scotland, with a median selling time of 14 days. One bedroom flats in Dalry, Gorgie, Slateford and Chesser; two bedroom flats in Portobello and Joppa; and one bedroom flats in Polwarth, Shandon and Tollcross all had a median selling time of 15 days.

One bedroom flats in Polwarth, Shandon and Tollcross achieved the highest Home Report valuation on average, at 110.8%, followed by one bedroom flats in the areas of Leith Walk, Easter Road, Pilrig and Bonnington at 108.5%. These are typical hotspots for first time buyers and renters, so the high percentage of Home Report valuation achieved, coupled with short selling times, indicates that there has been strong demand from both first time buyers and buy-to-let investors for properties in 2018.

Two bedroom flats in Leith was the top property type in terms of sales volume, followed by three bedroom houses in Dunfermline and one bedroom flats in Leith.

Increase in number of listings is a positive sign for buyers

Paul Hilton, CEO of ESPC, said: “While 2018 remained a sellers’ market due to a shortage of properties, during the last three months of the year there was a significant increase in the number of homes coming to market, as well as an increase in sales volume. This is a particularly positive sign for buyers as the increased supply of homes should help to meet some of the strong demand for properties.

“Small flats in traditional first time buyer hotspots such as Leith and Polwarth have tended to achieve the highest average percentage of Home Report valuation as well as some of the shortest selling times in 2018. It appears first time buyers are facing high levels of competition due to strong demand for homes in the city, coupled with a shortage of supply. However, the increase in the number of properties coming to market at the end of 2018 may make it easier for first time buyers to procure a property in 2019.”

 

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