Responding to the latest ONS data on trade, William Bain, Head of Trade Policy at the BCC, said: 

“UK trade showed signs of stabilising in May as the initial impact of higher US tariffs began to subside.

“Services exports and imports showed steady month on month growth of 0.5%. Goods exports volumes also rose by 3.1%, with 4.2% growth to the EU, and 1.9% to the rest of the world.

“Goods exports to the US rose by £0.3bn in May after a rollercoaster few months, but export levels are still significantly below where they were six months ago.

“More predictable tariff and trading conditions are key to providing our businesses with certainty. Further implementation of the UK-US deal would enhance those prospects, together with successful negotiations with the EU, and stronger export performance in the Indo-Pacific region. This should include the opportunities of enhanced trade with the CPTPP states and ratification of the trade deal with India.

“If this is combined with a full rollout of the policies from the recent UK Trade Strategy, then businesses will be given the confidence needed to invest and grow their global trade links throughout 2025 and beyond.”

Analysis of the data:

May was the first complete calendar trading month after all the US tariffs changes affecting the UK were put in place. It was also the month the Economic Prosperity Deal ‘heads of agreement’ was adopted by the UK and US.

Goods Exports

Overall, goods exports rose by 3.1% in volume in May, with a 4.2% increase to the EU, led by higher fuels, machinery, transport equipment and other manufactured goods.  The rest of the world saw growth of 1.9%, month on month, mainly driven by higher chemicals exports, including to the US, and other manufactured goods.

Although goods exports to the US rose by £0.3bn in May, led by a rise in chemicals sales, the overall value remained markedly lower than either 2 years or 6 months ago.

Goods Imports

On goods imports, overall volumes rose by 2.2%, month on month, in May. This was driven by a 2.5% rise in imports from the EU, led by higher chemicals and pharmaceuticals imports and those of other manufactured goods. There was also a 1.9% rise from the rest of the world, driven by higher levels of fuels, chemicals and miscellaneous manufactured goods imports.

Imports of electric vehicles from China continue to show significant growth.

Services

Estimates on services trade in May suggest a 0.5% increase in export volumes month on month, matched by a 0.5% increase in imports.

More detail on the ONS data can be found here.