Labour is now the political party most trusted by voters in England to represent English interests, according to new research from Cardiff University and the University of Edinburgh, released today [Sunday 24th September].

The latest evidence is a marked departure from previous surveys which have suggested a lingering dissatisfaction among English voters with Labour’s response to the ‘English Question’.

The findings, taken from the latest Future of England survey, will be presented tomorrow, Monday 25th September, at a fringe meeting of the Labour Party’s Annual Conference in Brighton.

Almost a third of those surveyed (31%) identified the Labour Party as the party best positioned to stand up for England, compared to 24% who identified the Conservatives and just 9% who opted for UKIP. The Liberal Democrats scored the lowest of any major political party, with just 4%.

This is a significant change from previous findings, which saw UKIP as the most trusted defender of English interests in 2016, while in 2015 the Conservatives enjoyed a substantial lead in the aftermath of a general election campaign where the party successfully mobilised English sentiment over fears of the SNP holding the balance of power in a hung parliament.

Despite the introduction of ‘English Votes for English Laws’ (EVEL), a Conservative policy designed to protect exclusively English law-making from external influence, there is a perception among voters that the UK Conservative government is insufficiently committed to introducing change for England. A majority of respondents (54%) felt there has been very little or no progress in this area, compared to perceptions of an enhanced devolution settlement for Scotland. Accordingly, a sizeable proportion of respondents want to see further action to enhance England’s political voice.

Speaking ahead of the meeting, Professor Richard Wyn Jones, Director of Cardiff University’s Wales Governance Centre, said:

“Just two years ago the Conservatives successfully played into fears of a Labour-SNP coalition deal to project themselves as the party best placed to defend English interests. Now the latest evidence suggests that the tables have turned, with Labour seen as most likely to give England its political voice. The challenge for the Labour Party is to capitalise on this trust and craft a popular, sustainable solution to these demands without losing its appeal across the UK as a whole”.

Professor Ailsa Henderson, Professor of Political Science at the University of Edinburgh, added:

“What’s clear is that despite the introduction of English Votes for English Laws, voters in England don’t think it has happened, with less than one percent thinking that the government has made a lot of progress on EVEL. It’s also clear that voters believe this is down to a lack of government commitment. Since this was the governing party’s main proposal for dealing with English governance, it’s perhaps not surprising that voters now believe another party is best able to stand up for England.”

Commenting on the labour market statistics for April 2017, released today by the Office for National Statistics, Suren Thiru, Head of Economics at the British Chambers of Commerce (BCC), said:

“With unemployment continuing to fall and employment levels rising, conditions in the UK labour market remain robust.

“However, labour market indicators often lag behind the wider economy and it remains likely that employment growth will start to soften over the near-term, as more subdued economic conditions and the rising cost of doing business in the UK stifle firms’ ability to recruit. The BCC’s Quarterly Economic Survey shows the proportion of firms reporting recruitment difficulties remains close to a record high, which is undermining their productivity and growth.

“With increases in regular pay slowing again, earnings growth is now comfortably trailing behind inflation. If the disparity between pay and price growth continues to increase as we predict, household spending is likely to slow further, weakening overall economic activity.
“The next government must do more to close the skills gap, including improving the transition from education to work by guaranteeing universal experience of work in all schools for under 16s, and delivering a future immigration regime based on economic need, rather than an arbitrary migration target. This will help firms compete on the global stage, boosting UK productivity and growth.”

Commenting on the Labour Party Manifesto, Dr Adam Marshall, Director General of the British Chambers of Commerce (BCC), said:

“High personal taxation, sweeping nationalisation and deep intervention in business decision-making are not the hallmarks of an ambitious and enterprising society. Taken together, some of the headline propositions in the Labour Party manifesto will give business communities across the UK real cause for concern.

“There are some bright spots in Labour’s manifesto, notably clear and specific commitments to reform Britain’s broken business rates system, which successive governments have failed to implement. The party is right to propose an immediate guarantee for EU nationals currently in the UK, which is a top priority for the many thousands of firms that employ them, as well as more flexibility for businesses to use the apprenticeship levy to train people here at home. Labour’s proposals to strengthen and ring-fence practical international trade support for SMEs deserve careful consideration.

“While Labour are making some specific and targeted propositions that could boost the growth prospects of small- and medium-sized firms, these will be largely eclipsed by their proposals for higher personal and business taxes in the eyes of business leaders around the UK.”