A majority of those in England who voted for the UK to leave the European Union are willing to risk the breakup of the UK to make Brexit happen, according to new research from Cardiff University and the University of Edinburgh, released today [Sunday 1st October].

Eighty-eight per cent of leave voters felt that a ‘yes’ vote in a second referendum on Scottish independence was an acceptable price to pay in order to “take back control.” A similarly high proportion, 81%, also felt that destabilising the Northern Ireland peace process would be worthwhile to see the UK exit the European Union.

The findings, taken from the latest Future of England survey, will be presented tomorrow, Monday 2nd October, at a fringe meeting of the Conservative Party’s Annual Conference in Manchester.

Conservative supporting leave voters are also more likely to countenance the breakup of the UK with 92% prepared to accept Scotland voting for independence (compared to 78% of Labour supporting leave voters). By the same token, 87% of Conservative supporting leave voters would be willing to risk jeopardising Northern Ireland’s peace process (compared to 67% of Labour supporting Leave voters).

Speaking ahead of the meeting, Professor Ailsa Henderson, Professor of Political Science at the University of Edinburgh, said:

“It’s evident from the data just how high a price many leave voters would be willing to pay to make Brexit a success. What’s perhaps most remarkable is the substantial proportion of Conservative supporters that are willing to risk the breakup of the UK to see Brexit happen”.

Professor Richard Wyn Jones, Director of Cardiff University’s Wales Governance Centre, added:

“For well over a century, the Conservative and Unionist Party has been the party most associated with defending the Union. But with such a high proportion of the party’s supporters willing to sacrifice the Union to ‘take back control’, it might well be time to ask whether the party still lives up to that name”.

Labour is now the political party most trusted by voters in England to represent English interests, according to new research from Cardiff University and the University of Edinburgh, released today [Sunday 24th September].

The latest evidence is a marked departure from previous surveys which have suggested a lingering dissatisfaction among English voters with Labour’s response to the ‘English Question’.

The findings, taken from the latest Future of England survey, will be presented tomorrow, Monday 25th September, at a fringe meeting of the Labour Party’s Annual Conference in Brighton.

Almost a third of those surveyed (31%) identified the Labour Party as the party best positioned to stand up for England, compared to 24% who identified the Conservatives and just 9% who opted for UKIP. The Liberal Democrats scored the lowest of any major political party, with just 4%.

This is a significant change from previous findings, which saw UKIP as the most trusted defender of English interests in 2016, while in 2015 the Conservatives enjoyed a substantial lead in the aftermath of a general election campaign where the party successfully mobilised English sentiment over fears of the SNP holding the balance of power in a hung parliament.

Despite the introduction of ‘English Votes for English Laws’ (EVEL), a Conservative policy designed to protect exclusively English law-making from external influence, there is a perception among voters that the UK Conservative government is insufficiently committed to introducing change for England. A majority of respondents (54%) felt there has been very little or no progress in this area, compared to perceptions of an enhanced devolution settlement for Scotland. Accordingly, a sizeable proportion of respondents want to see further action to enhance England’s political voice.

Speaking ahead of the meeting, Professor Richard Wyn Jones, Director of Cardiff University’s Wales Governance Centre, said:

“Just two years ago the Conservatives successfully played into fears of a Labour-SNP coalition deal to project themselves as the party best placed to defend English interests. Now the latest evidence suggests that the tables have turned, with Labour seen as most likely to give England its political voice. The challenge for the Labour Party is to capitalise on this trust and craft a popular, sustainable solution to these demands without losing its appeal across the UK as a whole”.

Professor Ailsa Henderson, Professor of Political Science at the University of Edinburgh, added:

“What’s clear is that despite the introduction of English Votes for English Laws, voters in England don’t think it has happened, with less than one percent thinking that the government has made a lot of progress on EVEL. It’s also clear that voters believe this is down to a lack of government commitment. Since this was the governing party’s main proposal for dealing with English governance, it’s perhaps not surprising that voters now believe another party is best able to stand up for England.”