News & Blog

Read the latest business news, blogs and thought leadership articles from our members. When supplying images please ensure that you have the correct and necessary permissions to pass these on to us for our use. Any charges incurred by the Chamber regarding unauthorised use of images which have been supplied by members/PR companies will be charged back to the company by the Chamber.

News & Blog

Spring Statement 2025

Posted: 27th March 2025

Today, the Chancellor delivered her Spring Statement – an attempt to balance the books after her financial headroom vanished since the Autumn Budget and the Office for Budget Responsibility slashed the country’s growth forecast for 2025 to 1%.

Bullish, the Chancellor defended her decisions at the Budget and expressed her frustration at the low rate of growth projected. “It will take time” she said, “for reforms to be felt in the everyday economy” but that defence spending, planning reform and targeted interventions to stimulate housebuilding and construction would support the growth agenda.

 

Measures announced
AREA  
Infrastructure and Capital

Spending

·       Invest £625m in construction skills. Increase capacity to deliver 1.5 million homes and progress vital infrastructure projects.

·       Changes to CDEL envelope. Increase capital spending by £13bn to support growth-enhancing investments, including infrastructure, housing, and defence innovation.

·       Planning – Changes to NPPF in December – contributed 0.2% GDP in 29/30 and £6.8bn extra. 0.6% GDP growth in next 10 years. 1.3 million new homes in next 5 years.

·       Invest £2bn in social and affordable homes over 2026–27. Deliver 18,000 homes and allow housing associations and local councils to bring bids forward for new developments. Further investment will be announced at the Spending Review.

·       Building Safety Levy. Introduce a levy from October 1, 2026, requiring most new residential developments in England to help fund building safety improvements. Exemptions include affordable housing, small developments (fewer than ten units), and previously developed land (50% reduced rate).

Welfare  ·       Universal Credit Health Element. Freeze the Universal Credit health element for existing claimants until 2029–30 and reduce by £50 a week in 2026–27 and then freeze until 2029–30 for new claimants.

·       Universal Credit Standard Allowance. Increase the Universal Credit standard allowance for new and existing claimants above inflation from April 2026, reaching CPI +5 % from April 2029. The standard allowance weekly rate for a single person aged 25 and over will increase from £92 in 2025-26 to £106 in 2029–30.

·       Welfare fraud and error. Increase checks on potential Universal Credit claimants by introducing more ways to verify their savings as well as earnings and expenses, to save £200m in 2029–30. Recruit over 500 additional DWP fraud and error staff to correct errors in benefit claims, expected to save £40m in 2029–30.

·       High Income Child Benefit Charge (HICBC). Introduce a measure which means, from Summer 2025, affected individuals will be able to pay the charge via PAYE through a new digital service, removing the need to register for Self Assessment

Civil Service and Public

Finances

·       Departmental administrative budget reductions by 15% by 2030. Reduce departmental budgets with savings totalling at least £2.2bn per year by the end of this period.

·       £3.25bn investment in public services Transformation Fund to bring down costs of running Gov.

·       Create a £3.25bn Transformation Fund with:

o   £8m for new technology for probation officers.

o   £25m for the fostering system, including recruiting 400 new fostering households. o £42m for three Frontier AI Exemplars.

o   £150m for government employee exit schemes.

·       Covid fraud recovery retention. Improve incentives for Departments and Local Authorities to recover fraud from Covid schemes, with retention of fraud recovered to be agreed upon by Departments, Arm’s Length Bodies, Local Authorities, and HMT

People and Skills ·       £600m for training 60,000 construction workers and 10 new technical colleges across 10 regions
Defence ·       Increase to 2.5% of GDP from April 2027 and reducing overseas aid by 0.3% of GDP. Saving £2.6bn in 29/30

·       Official Development Assistance (ODA) profile. Reduce ODA to 0.3% of GNI by 2027 to fund increased defence spending, in line with the Prime Minister’s earlier announcement • Defence 2025–26 uplift. The Ministry of Defence (MOD) will receive a £2.2bn increase in its budget for 2025–26.

·       2027 £6.4bn extra into defence spending. £2.2bn Ministry of Defence for next Fin Year.

·       UK Defence Innovation (UKDI). Speed up defence innovation, support the UK tech sector, and boost economic spillovers. It will launch by July 2025 with an initial £400m budget, set to rise in future years.

·       Novel technologies ringfence. Introduce a new technology ringfence, starting in 2025-26, requiring the MOD to spend at least 10% of its equipment budget on emerging technologies, such as AI, autonomous systems, and dual-use tech.

·       Min 10% on MOD equipment budget on new tech e.g. Drones and AI – manufacturing production in UK.

£400m protected budget in MOD – which will rise over time. Clear mandate to bring tech forward at speed

·       Defence procurement reform. Move to a new segmented procurement approach within the MoD with faster timelines:

o   Major platforms: 6 to 2 years

o   Modular upgrades: 3 to 1 year

o   Rapid commercial tech (e.g. drones / software): 3-month cycles

·       UKEF direct lending increase for UK Export Finance. Add £2bn to UK Export Finance’s (UKEF) direct lending capacity for defence exports, bringing the total to £10bn.

·       Growth and Defence Reform. Operate a new Defence Growth Board, co-chaired by the Chancellor and Defence Secretary from April 1, 2025

Taxation ·       HMRC’s debt management capacity. Invest £87m over the next five years in HMRC’s existing partnerships with private sector debt collection agencies to collect more unpaid tax debts.

·       Additional HMRC debt management and compliance staff. Invest in HMRC staff, putting £114m over the next five years towards recruiting 600 debt management staff and over £100m over the next five years to recruit 500 HMRC compliance staff.

·       Making Tax Digital. Expand the rollout of Making Tax Digital (MTD) for income tax Self Assessment to sole traders and landlords with incomes over £20,000 from April 2028.

·       Late payment penalties. Increase late payment penalties for VAT taxpayers and income tax Self Assessment taxpayers as they join MTD, from April 2025 onwards, with rates of 3% of the tax outstanding where tax is overdue by 15 days, plus 3% where tax is overdue by 30 days, plus 10% per annum where tax is overdue by 31 days or more.

·       Direct recovery of tax debts. Re-start ‘direct recovery’ of tax debts by HMRC and explore options to automate the process for collecting lower value tax debts.

·       Making better use of third-party data. Launch a consultation on modernising how HMRC acquires and uses third-party data to make it easier for taxpayers to get tax right the first time.

·       Behavioural penalty reform. Launch a consultation on options to simplify and strengthen HMRC’s inaccuracy and failure to notify penalties.

·       Enhancing HMRC’s ability to tackle tax advisers facilitating non-compliance. Launch a consultation on options to enhance HMRC’s powers and sanctions against tax advisers who facilitate non-compliance.

·       Closing in on promoters of marketed tax avoidance. Launch a consultation on a package of measures to close in on promoters of marketed tax avoidance.

·       Duty and Stamp Duty Reserve Tax. Draft legislation has been published for consultation to exempt share transactions on the PISCES platform from Stamp Duty and Stamp Duty Reserve Tax.

 

 

 

OBR Economic and Fiscal Outlook

ECONOMIC GROWTH

The OBR expects GDP growth of 1.0% for 2025, slightly in line with the recent BCC Forecast of 0.9% in 2025. This is a downgrade from the OBR’s previous forecast of 2.0% in October 2024. The OBR forecasts growth of 1.9% in 2026, 1.8% in 2027, 1.7% in 2028, and 1.8% in 2029. The OBR states that ‘the economic and fiscal outlook has become more challenging since the Autumn Budget’. They expect Government planning reforms to ‘deliver a modest boost to the level of potential output of 0.2 per cent in 2029’ but are ‘yet to reflect the impact of the Government’s Employment Rights Bill’ which they state: ‘will likely have material, and probably net negative, economic impacts on employment, prices, and productivity.’

 

INFLATION

The OBR expects the CPI to increase from 2.5% in October 2024 to an average of 3.2% in 2025, higher than BCC’s forecast of 2.8% for Q4 2025. The OBR forecasts an inflation rate of 2.1% in 2026, 2.0% in 2027, 2028 and 2029. The expected rise in CPI in 2025 is driven by ‘increases in the Ofgem price cap due to higher energy prices, higher food prices due to a rise in domestic costs, and regulated water bills from April 2025.’

 

EXPORTS

Export volumes are expected to fall by 0.1% in 2025, a smaller decline compared to BCC’s forecast of -0.5% in 2025. The OBR then expects an improvement in exports, with growth of 1.4% in 2026, 0.6% in 2027, 0.5% in 2028, and then 0.8% in 2029.

 

BUSINESS INVESTMENT

The OBR expects business investment to fall by 0.2% in 2025, a significant drop compared to BCC’s forecast which expects an increase of 0.6% in 2025. The OBR then forecasts business investment to significantly fall by 1.8% in 2026, to then increase by 1.7% in 2027, 1.5% in 2028, and 1.6% in 2029.

 

LABOUR MARKET

The OBR expects the unemployment rate to increase to 4.5% in 2025, slightly lower than BCC’s forecast of 4.6% in 2025. The OBR then expects a slight decrease to 4.3% in 2026, 4.2% in 2027, and 4.1% in 2028 and 2029.

 

FISCAL OUTLOOK

The OBR expects public sector net debt (excluding the Bank of England) as a percentage of GPD to be 89.9% in 2024/25, 92.0% in 2025/26, 93.4% in 2026/27, 94.2% in 2027/28, 94.8% in 2028/29, and 95.0% in 2029/30.

 

FULL OBR FORECAST: https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/OBR_Economic_and_fiscal_outlook_March_2025.pdf

Business Comment

Business Comment is the Edinburgh Chamber of Commerce’s bi-monthly magazine. It provides insight on Edinburgh’s vibrant business community, with features on the city’s key sectors, interviews with leading figures and news on new business developments in the capital.
Read more here