Professor Joe Nellis is economic adviser at MHA, the accountancy and advisory firm.

The UK economy did not grow in July, a drop off from the 0.4% growth in GDP recorded in June. This is worrying news for the Chancellor, making her decisions at the Budget in November even more difficult than previously expected.

The pattern of growth this year highlights an uneven recovery. Services continue to provide the main engine, while industrial output struggles to gather pace amid global trade frictions. Household spending remains constrained as high living costs limit disposable incomes, and business investment has yet to rebound in any meaningful way.

With the Autumn Budget scheduled for 26th November, the risks to momentum remain tilted to the downside. Rising U.S. tariffs, fragile corporate confidence, and uncertainty around fiscal plans could all act as drags in the months ahead.

With the Prime Minister taking firmer control of economic policy, the Chancellor finds herself under increased pressure. The economy has been edging forward rather than slipping back into stagnation, but she will be praying for growth to accelerate in the coming months.