fbpx

News & Blog

Read the latest business news, blogs and thought leadership articles from our members, as well as updates on the Edinburgh Chamber of Commerce's work in the city.

News & Blog

Edinburgh and Glasgow house prices to trump UK averages over next five years

Posted: 13th February 2019

House prices in Edinburgh and Glasgow are set to grow by 16.5% and 13.7% respectively over the next five years to 2023, according to new research from the UK’s leading property consultancy, JLL. Forecasts for the next five years across Scotland suggest more moderate growth of around 11.5%, marginally outperforming the UK five year forecast of 11.4%.

JLL’s forecast for Scotland assumes that a Brexit deal is hammered out over the coming months. The price growth comes at a time when Scotland, like the rest of the UK, has continued to under deliver the number of homes needed to meet demand or to achieve the required targets.

House price growth in Scotland has grown by 17% in the past five years, below the growth of 31% seen across the UK over what has been a period of consistent politician uncertainty.

For Edinburgh, the story of the next five years is one of steady growth, with JLL predicting the city centre to be one of the UK’s top performing markets. A critical shortfall in supply continues to underpin values in the city. The average sales price of a typical two bed flat in the city centre at the end of 2018 was £285,000, a 2.5% increase compared with the same period in 2017. JLL expects both price and rental growth in Edinburgh to average 3.1% per annum, well above its UK-wide forecast of 2.2% pa price growth and 2.4% pa rental growth.

For Glasgow, the housing market has been characterized by an undersupply of housing for many years, particularly in the city centre. A shift in interest during 2017 from an almost entirely build for sale bias towards an emphasis on Build to Rent. This shift is evident in Glasgow’s planning pipeline where there are currently around 4,000 Build to Rent units, many of which are set to complete around the same time in 2021 and 2022.

The sale price of a typical new build two bed flat in Glasgow city centre is around £226,000, an increase of 1.8% during 2018. Over the next five years JLL expects sales prices to rise by an average of 2.6% pa – below that of many other UK city centres suffering from more acute demand-supply imbalances, but greater than the UK-wise and Scotland forecasts. Rents in Glasgow are also set to grow at 3% pa over the same period.

Key figures Edinburgh Glasgow
5 year house price forecast

(avg annual % growth)

16.5%

(3.1% pa)

13.7%

(2.6% pa)

5 year rental forecast

(avg annual % growth)

16.5%

(3.1% pa)

15.4%

(3% pa)

Average sales price – 2 bedroom flat

(2018 % change)

£285,000

(2.5%)

£226,000

(1.8%)

Average rent £pcm – 2 bedroom flat

(2017 % change)

£1000

(3.1%)

£840

(3.7%)

Build to Rent – Net yield

(typical yield range)

4.75%

(4.50-4.75%)

5.00%

(4.75-5.00%)

 

Nick Whitten, Director of JLL residential research said: “Brexit has undoubtedly created headwinds for buyers, investors and developers, and looks set to produce further headwinds over the coming years. Through this air of uncertainty, the mainstream housing market continues to perform remarkably normally. Transaction volumes in Scotland are only around 5% down on where they were at Q1 2016, just before the EU vote. Buyers and sellers with any discretion in their decision making – investors, downsizers and higher value purchasers in particular – are typically taking a pause to see how Brexit unfolds before making their next move. We expect that dynamic to continue, and forecast that house prices in Scotland and the UK increase modestly as a result over the next five years.

Jason Hogg, Director of JLL’s Residential team in Scotland, said: “In recent years Scotland’s major cities have established themselves as stand out performers in the residential market, with Edinburgh and to a lesser extent Glasgow seeing above average house price growth. This has been aided by the significant supply shortfall and growing demand from people wanting to live in city centres. The moderate growth across Scotland’s house prices are somewhat skewed by the above average performance of both Edinburgh and Glasgow, which are both set to see strong growth as limited development activity creates further discord between demand and supply.”

Find out more in our latest report: http://jll.link/6019ErudT 

Business Comment

Business Comment is the Edinburgh Chamber of Commerce’s bi-monthly magazine. It provides insight on Edinburgh’s vibrant business community, with features on the city’s key sectors, interviews with leading figures and news on new business developments in the capital.
Read more here