“While the economy registered its sharpest annual contraction on record last year, activity was 6.3% below pre-pandemic levels in December – a better outcome than many had expected.

“Stricter and more prolonged restrictions are likely to drive a further contraction in the first quarter before vaccinations and better weather enable a summer rebound. However, regaining lost activity due to the pandemic will take longer. We forecast UK GDP to reach pre-pandemic levels in spring 2022.”