- Output falls for fourth straight month…
- …but staffing levels rise at quickest pace in nearly two years
- Inflationary pressures ease further
Business activity across Scotland declined again in July, according to the latest Royal Bank of Scotland Growth Tracker, as demand conditions remained challenging. There were some positive developments, however, with inflationary pressures easing, payrolls rising and confidence around the year ahead improving.
The headline Royal Bank of Scotland Business Activity Index – a seasonally adjusted index that measures the month-on-month change in the combined output of Scotland’s manufacturing and service sectors – slipped from 47.6 in June to 47.3 in July. This signalled a further decline in Scottish private sector activity, extending the current run of contraction to four months. Companies reporting lower activity linked this to weaker economic conditions, geopolitical uncertainty and a lack of new orders.
After rising slightly for the first time in three months in June, employment at Scottish private sector companies rose again in July. Furthermore, the pace of job creation increased to its fastest since September 2024. Sector data indicated that the upturn was driven by service providers, as a marked decline in payrolls was seen among goods producers. Services firms often linked staff hiring to expectations of new projects.
Commenting on the Tracker’s findings, Judith Cruickshank, Scotland Board Chair, Royal Bank of Scotland, said:
“Scottish firms signalled a mixed start to the second half of the year according to our Royal Bank Growth Tracker data. Activity continued to decline, reflecting subdued demand and a sharp fall in new orders.
“However, business optimism continued to strengthen from April’s recent low. At the same time, firms expanded payrolls, with employment rising at the fastest rate for nearly two years. Inflationary pressures also eased, reducing potential headwinds to demand.
“Overall, while Scotland lagged behind the wider UK picture in terms of falling business activity and lower confidence, it stood out for the resilience of its labour market. As we continue into the second half of 2026, we may see this increased hiring translate into increasing business activity if inflation continues to fall.”
The headline figure is the Business Activity Index, calculated from a single question that asks for changes in the volume of business activity compared with one month previously. It is a diffusion index, which is the sum of the percentage of ‘higher’ responses and half the
percentage of ‘unchanged’ responses. It varies between 0 and 100, with a reading above 50 indicating an overall increase in compared to the previous month, and below 50 an overall decrease. The higher above 50, the faster the rate of growth signalled.
Performance in relation to UK
Output at the UK level rose for the first time in three months, with ten of the 12 monitored regions and nations recording growth. Yorkshire & Humber was the only other area to report a decline, though their pace of reduction was slower than that seen in Scotland.
Scottish private sector firms reported a twenty-second consecutive monthly fall in new orders in July. The rate of reduction was faster than in June. Companies that reported a decline attributed it to subdued economic conditions and a reluctance among customers to commit to new orders.
There were also mentions of weaker demand across the housebuilding sector in particular.
Among the 12 monitored UK regions and nations, Scotland posted the steepest decrease in sales in July. In contrast, new orders rose at the UK level for the first time in three months.
Despite the worsening demand trend, Scottish firms’ expectations regarding future output recovered further from the low seen in April. Companies were at their most confident in four months, supported by hopes of stronger sales pipelines, new projects and greater efforts to target new sectors and clients.
Even so, business sentiment remained historically subdued overall. Furthermore, across the 12 monitored UK regions and nations, only Northern Ireland recorded a lower level of optimism than Scotland.
Aside from the broadly stable employment picture seen in Northern Ireland, all other monitored UK regions and nations recorded further declines in staffing levels during the latest survey period.
Outstanding business at private sector firms in Scotland fell again in July, extending the current sequence of decline to one year. The rate of depletion was sharp and the fastest in four months. Panellists noted that fewer new orders enabled them to work through existing backlogs.
Signs of spare capacity were evident across all monitored UK areas except London, where outstanding business was unchanged.
Private sector firms in Scotland reported a further marked rise in costs during July. Companies commonly linked the increase to higher wage bills, as well as elevated material and shipping costs. Although the rate of inflation remained historically high, it eased further from April’s recent peak to the weakest since February.
Cost pressures faced by Scottish firms were only slightly weaker than that seen across the UK as a whole.
Alongside the softer rise in input costs, charges levied for Scottish goods and services also increased at a slower pace in July. The respective seasonally adjusted index fell for a third successive month to its lowest since February. In fact, among the 12 monitored UK regions and nations, Scotland recorded the weakest rate of charge inflation.
Nonetheless, firms commonly attributed the rise in charges to the pass-through of higher costs to customers.
Savills has welcomed back Ele Ross to its Edinburgh residential sales team as a Director, further strengthening its market-leading presence across the capital and wider East of Scotland.
Ele rejoins the Edinburgh office following three years with Savills Residential Sales team in Islington, London, where she progressed to Director. Originally joining Savills in Edinburgh in 2015, she built her career within the Scottish business, establishing a strong reputation advising on the sale of some of Scotland’s finest country houses before relocating to London in 2023.
Returning to Edinburgh, Ele joins the town residential sales team as part of the senior leadership team, bringing together extensive experience from both the London and Scottish markets, alongside a deep understanding of the needs of buyers and sellers.
John Forsyth, Head of Edinburgh Residential Sales at Savills, said: “We are delighted to welcome Ele back to Edinburgh. Having spent over a decade with Savills, she knows the business, our clients and the Edinburgh market exceptionally well. During her time in London, she further enhanced her expertise, advising on more than £150 million of residential sales in one of the world’s most competitive property markets.
“Edinburgh has firmly established itself as a global city, attracting buyers from London, across the UK and internationally. As demand for the city’s exceptional homes continues to grow, Ele’s London experience, proven track record and local market knowledge will be invaluable to our clients and the wider team. We are delighted to have her back.”
Ele Ross added: “I’m thrilled to be returning to Edinburgh and rejoining the team where my Savills career began. My time in London has been incredibly rewarding and has broadened my experience across a wide range of residential transactions. Edinburgh is an exciting and dynamic market that continues to attract interest from far and wide, and I’m looking forward to bringing the experience I’ve gained back to the city and helping our clients achieve their property ambitions.”
Ele’s appointment reflects Savills continued investment in its residential business across Scotland, as demand for homes in Edinburgh and the surrounding areas continues to attract buyers from across the UK and overseas.
BIOCAPTIVA, a University of Edinburgh spin-out that develops advanced technologies to extract cell-free DNA (cfDNA) from blood for cancer liquid biopsies, has appointed experienced life sciences executive, Stephane Argivier as Chair to steer its next phase of international growth.
The company’s patented msX platform has the potential to improve the pace and scale of cancer research by addressing a long-standing bottleneck in how samples are prepared for liquid biopsy, which is a growing market in non-invasive genetic testing.
Bringing 30 years’ experience, including 15 years at board level, specialising in life science enabling tools, in vitro diagnostics (IVD) and critical raw materials, Stephane has built a career leading private, venture-backed and growth-stage businesses through periods of transformation, with particular expertise in strategy, commercial scale-up, governance, fundraising, organisational development and founder transitions.
Originally from France, Stephane has successfully led businesses through fundraising, growth acceleration and exit. As CEO of MIP Discovery, he secured significant funding while repositioning the company’s strategy towards higher-value markets. He later served for four years as a Non-Executive Director of Logical Biological, supporting its rapid growth, before stepping into the CEO role to lead its next phase of scale-up. Earlier, as Managing Director of SCIPAC, he oversaw sustained growth, expanded the business into high-value diagnostics markets and led its successful acquisition by BBI Group.
Stephane takes over as BIOCAPTIVA’s Chairmanship from Frank Armstrong, who served since the company’s inception, steering the business through its early technological, organisational and strategic development to lay solid foundations for commercial growth.
His appointment follows a series of significant milestones for BIOCAPTIVA including securing £1.5m funding led by existing investor Archangels and supported by Old College Capital, BBI, Scottish Enterprise and EverQuest Partners. BIOCAPTIVA also secured ISO 13485 certification, appointed Alan Schafer as Chief Technology Officer, and had a successful commercial launch of its technology platform, focused initially on the United States market.
Jeremy Wheeler, CEO at BIOCAPTIVA, said: “Every stage of a company’s journey requires different strengths. Frank’s leadership helped transform BIOCAPTIVA from an innovative technology company into a commercially ready business, and we are extremely grateful for everything he has contributed.
“As we now focus on scaling internationally and delivering the commercial potential of our platform, Stephane’s experience and reputation across the global diagnostics industry will be invaluable. His appointment marks another important milestone in BIOCAPTIVA’s evolution.”
Sarah Hardy, Director and Head of New Investment at Archangels, said: “BIOCAPTIVA is going from strength to strength and is poised to accelerate towards its commercial potential under Stephane’s strategic leadership. The appointment of Stephane is the natural progression for the next phase of BIOCAPTIVA’s growth, as it aims to accelerate commercial adoption, deepen strategic partnerships, support OEM opportunities.
“Archangels is proud to support BIOCAPTIVA and its vision for faster, better and deeper iteration and research on cancer, leading to better outcomes for potentially millions of people globally.”
Stephane Argivier, newly appointed Chair of the Board at BIOCAPTIVA, said: “BIOCAPTIVA has developed a highly differentiated and scalable technology to improve liquid biopsy workflows and sequencing data quality through enhanced pre-analytics. I am delighted to join as Chair and look forward to working with the Board and management team to accelerate commercial adoption and expand the technology’s impact across cfDNA sequencing applications.”
For further information on BIOCAPTIVA, please visit: biocaptiva.com
17 July, Edinburgh: It’s almost time for curtain up at the King’s Theatre as it prepares to reopen in two weeks following its major redevelopment project. The latest footage released by Capital Theatres, the charity which manages the theatre, shows the brand-new red velvet curtains, provided by J & C Joels, being raised above the stage for the very first time.
The historic Edinburgh theatre returns with a special Opening Weekend on Saturday 1 and Sunday 2 August. People will be able to explore all areas of the building, book behind-the-scenes tours that include stepping onto the new flat stage and find out more about the theatre’s history and the redevelopment project. The King’s Theatre Opening Weekend is free to attend but booking is required to guarantee a slot. Availability is very limited but last-minute slots may become available.
Prior to the Opening Weekend, Capital Theatres is calling upon audiences to help put the newly redeveloped theatre through its paces with a short series of test performances. These special events allow the team to rehearse everything that makes a theatre visit run smoothly, from ticket scanning to wayfinding around the venue and front of house operations. These dress rehearsals include: Frozen Singalong (25 July 2.30pm) a singalong screening of the Disney classic, and Mhairi Black and Kevin Quantum (25 July 7.30pm) for an evening of comedy and magic. Tickets are selling quickly, available at www.capitaltheatres.com.
The King’s Theatre redevelopment project sees this historic venue reimagined for the next 120 years. It will be one of the most accessible heritage buildings in the UK, with new lifts offering level access from street to seat or stage. The new, flat stage and upgraded technical facilities set the scene for a wider range of more ambitious productions than ever before. It will also offer welcoming new public spaces, including a street-level café, a Creative Engagement Studio for workshops, community projects and events, and a range of heritage displays and artefacts bringing the venue’s rich history to life.
Cloudsoft headed to Winton Castle in East Lothian in June for a team reunion day for 55 of its employees.
They arranged transfers from Edinburgh city centre for the bulk of the attendees, but a hardy group decided to cycle to Winton and even managed to cycle home.
Cloudsoft is a specialist software engineering company headquartered in Edinburgh. The tech business builds reusable, enterprise-ready technology and software for global clients like Amazon Web Services, Gartner, Dynatrace and Aviatrix.
After their away day Ludovic Farine, their Chief Operating Officer, commented on their experience:
“Winton Castle looks magnificent. It is a special place just 30 minutes from Edinburgh, a fantastic looking venue away from the city.
“We investigated other venues as well, but Winton was one of the most reasonably valued ones which made it viable on our budget.
“Having our event tailored just for us made it appealing too. You proposed team activities rather than having another third party in the mix.
“All our guests were colleagues from Cloudsoft. The objectives for our day out were team building, having a relaxed day out and getting to know each other. We wanted to be away from our day-to-day projects in front of our screens!”
What was the feedback from your colleagues?
“We loved the Winton Highland Games with tossing the caber and hay bale, axe throwing and a tug-o-war – great fun and competitive!
“The BBQ food was delicious too. Everyone really enjoyed it!
“The overall feedback was really positive. We loved the atmosphere and how accommodating everyone was. Great comms and flexibility!
“We all had a wonderful time so thank you so much!”
Winton Castle provides a memorable setting for corporate events, from team away days and company celebrations to client entertaining. Clients have included Computershare, Panda & Sons, Aveni, The Real Mary King’s Close and Surgeons Quarter Edinburgh.
Many of Winton Castle’s clients choose to combine meetings with activities like a mini Highland Games and other outdoor experiences, creating a day that’s both productive and entertaining.
Responding to the latest GDP data, published by the Office for National Statistics this morning, Stuart Morrison, Research Manager at the British Chambers of Commerce said:
“The latest ONS data shows a fragile economy weighed down by geopolitical tensions and domestic cost pressures.
“With GDP growing by 0.7% in the three months to May, and only 0.1% in May itself, the new government faces the same growth challenge as its predecessor.
“The Iran conflict is having real-world consequences for UK firms. Rising energy prices and shipping disruption are increasing costs and creating uncertainty across the economy.
“For most businesses, recent cost rises, including the national insurance hike, are just the tip of the iceberg. BCC analysis shows government-imposed costs on a typical SME have risen by more than 70% in just 10 years.
“The impact is clear – business confidence is low, and our latest SME survey shows investment plans at their weakest level since the pandemic.
“From the moment Andy Burnham enters Downing Street, he must back business. That means moving quickly to cut the cost of doing business and create opportunities to boost trade, investment and productivity across the economy.”
The summer transfer window is open – and it’s not just the players who are finding new homes…
STV today announces that hit podcast The STV Radio Football Show is to be adapted for TV, with a new 30-minute sport entertainment show – The STV Radio Football Takeover – airing every Friday night on STV, STV Player and YouTube from 31 July. New episodes of the podcast will continue to be released every Monday.
Hosted by podcast presenters Ewen Cameron, Ronnie Charters and Callum Bell, the TV show will get Scottish football fans fired up for the weekend ahead, as the team preview all the biggest matches and share their opinions on the funniest and most dramatic moments of the week gone by.
As fans of the podcast know, Ewen, Ronnie and Callum rarely agree on anything – and their trademark banter, ribbing and hot takes will be bolder than ever as they move from pod to screen.
The trio will be joined by special guests to debate all the latest sporting action, while each episode will see a ‘Question of the Week’ being posed to the lads by members of the public. Plus, Ewen, Ronnie and Callum will share a different ‘Top Six’ list each week, covering everything from manager meltdowns to the most shocking dives of the season.
Ewen Cameron said: “As if I don’t spend enough time with those two eejits already, they’ve only gone and given us a primetime show on STV. Joking aside, the nation is crying out for a fun football entertainment show that can bring everyone together ahead of a weekend of fixtures. Friday nights on STV just got rowdier!”
Ronnie Charters said: “Now that we’re on the telly, I’d love to say we’re going to be much more high-brow and refined but let’s be honest, leopards can’t change their spots…”
Callum Bell said: “If you’d told me when I was a kid that I’d be hosting a primetime STV entertainment show, focused on football, with one of my best pals (and Ewen Cameron), I wouldn’t have believed you. I can’t wait to get started and welcome the STV audience into our podcast gang.”
The commission of The STV Radio Football Takeover follows the success of STV’s first visual podcast, The STV Radio Football Show, which launched in October 2025. The podcast, which was nominated at the inaugural Scottish Podcast Awards earlier this year, has since received over 24 million social video views and staged a sold-out live event at Glasgow’s Òran Mór in May.
Richard Williams, MD of Audience at STV, said: “The STV Radio Football Show has found a dedicated and highly engaged audience since launching as a podcast less than a year ago. Ewen, Ronnie and Callum are brilliant, homegrown broadcasting talents, and it’s a no-brainer to bring their camaraderie and lively, accessible discussions about football and entertainment – and all sorts of other stuff – to our TV audience too.”
The STV Radio Football Takeover, sponsored by CR Smith, is an STV News production for STV and STV Player. The Executive Producer is John Mason.
The STV Radio Football Takeover launches on STV, STV Player and YouTube at 7pm on Friday 31 July.
Released every Monday, visual podcast The STV Radio Football Show is available on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, YouTube and STV Player.
Landlords are facing waits of up to a year to regain possession of their properties through Scotland’s housing tribunal, with legal experts warning the growing backlog is forcing many to leave the private rented sector and worsening the country’s housing shortage.
Litigation specialists at Aberdein Considine LLP say landlords whom they represent are typically waiting between eight and 12 months from applying for an eviction order to receiving a tribunal hearing, while legal costs can reach around £10,000 before a case is resolved.
According to the Scottish Association of Landlords (SAL), the average time between an eviction application being lodged and a tribunal decision has risen from around three months in 2019 to more than eight months in 2025.
The consequences are also reflected in growing rent arrears. SAL figures show tenants being evicted for unpaid rent now owe an average of 14.7 months’ rent by the time a decision is reached, compared with 8.7 months in 2019.
Aberdein Considine Dispute Resolution Partner Elaine Elder warns that delays, coupled with increasing regulation and rising costs, are driving many landlords to sell their properties rather than remain in the private rented sector. This is reducing the supply of homes available for rent, with the trend being particularly pronounced among landlords who own just one or two investment properties.
The issue dates back to changes introduced during the Covid-19 pandemic, when additional emergency protections provided to tenants significantly extended the time taken for landlords to recover possession of properties. Many of the changes were later made permanent* through the Coronavirus (Recovery and Reform) (Scotland) Act 2022, and industry figures say tribunal delays have continued to worsen since then, with year-on-year increases in tribunal delays.
Elaine Elder added:
“The current delays are placing enormous financial pressure on landlords who are already dealing with rising costs and increased regulation. Many simply cannot afford to wait close to a year while continuing to cover mortgage payments, insurance, maintenance costs and legal fees with no rental income coming in.
“Many landlords across Scotland are not large-scale investors. They are ordinary working people with one or two properties that form part of their retirement planning or long-term financial security. When they are forced to absorb months of unpaid rent alongside significant legal costs, many decide they have no option but to sell.
“That has wider consequences for the housing market because every landlord leaving the sector reduces the supply of rental accommodation at a time when demand remains extremely high.”
An Aberdein Considine LLP client and landlord described the tribunal process as “extremely frustrating” after spending months trying to recover possession of a property, – a two-bedroom flat in Glasgow – despite their tenant having already secured alternative council accommodation. The couple said:
“We originally invested in buy-to-let property as a way of saving for retirement and creating a financial safety net should ill health affect our ability to work. We have always tried to be fair and reasonable landlords and to work constructively with our tenants.
“Our experience with the tribunal process has been extremely frustrating. The system feels overly complicated, outdated and, at times, designed to catch landlords out on technicalities rather than resolve issues efficiently.
“In our case, the tenant had already secured alternative government-funded accommodation through the local council but refused to leave our flat. We were left without rental income while continuing to meet mortgage payments, insurance and maintenance costs. We also incurred significant legal fees pursuing possession through the proper legal channels.
“Despite the financial and emotional strain placed on us, the tenant did not even attend the hearing. The delays and uncertainty made an already difficult situation far worse.
“There is often a perception that landlords are wealthy or acting out of greed, but many of us are simply ordinary working people trying to provide for our families, save for retirement and protect ourselves against future ill health. The current system needs to be fair to tenants while also providing landlords with timely and effective access to justice.”
Scottish Association of Landlords Chief Executive John Blackwood said the delays were having a direct impact on Scotland’s private rented sector. He said:
“Delays in eviction notices can seriously impact landlords’ businesses and consequently affect the supply of rented property available at any one time.
“We have seen year-on-year increases in delays since 2019. Currently, the average time from application to a decision is over eight months, up from just three months in 2019.
“The Scottish Government should work with landlords and tenants to speed up the process so landlords can do their jobs by providing flexible and suitable homes to those who need them.”
Aberdein Considine LLP is calling for greater investment in the First-tier Tribunal for Scotland (Housing and Property Chamber) to reduce waiting times and provide faster access to justice for both landlords and tenants.
The firm says a more efficient tribunal system would not only reduce financial hardship for responsible landlords but also help improve confidence in Scotland’s private rented sector at a time when housing supply remains under significant pressure.
A pioneering scheme for business-led skills planning in England has been given the green light for another three years by the government, today.
Local Skills Improvement Plans (LSIPs) have been running for four years and have engaged thousands of people and employers in the training and education that firms desperately need.
There are 39 LSIPs in England and 33 of them are run by Chambers of Commerce. They bring together businesses, education providers and other stakeholders in their areas to identify the skills needed to support local economies.
In 2025, the Berkshire and Oxfordshire LSIP involved more than 100 businesses in helping design 45 new courses. This led to more than 1,400 people accessing new training which met real employer needs.
Meanwhile the Essex LSIP was able to target funding towards the creation of new facilities and equipment that helped more than 2,200 learners.
Kate Shoesmith, Director of Policy at the BCC, said:
“Today’s announcement will mean our employers and educators can continue to work together to provide the training young people need for the jobs of tomorrow.
“LSIPs have involved thousands of businesses, training providers and learners over the past four years, to deliver great employment outcomes because they think about what is needed in their locality.
“But the government must now think about how we maximise the benefits of this system. Annual funding cycles – particularly against three-year strategic plans – are difficult for everyone to manage. There is also an urgent need to plug gaps in the quality and consistency of careers advice available to schools.
“Many LSIPs report that schools are not aware of the growth areas in their local economies, or the breadth of careers different sectors can offer.
“That isn’t the fault of teachers – they have enough on their plate. But with over one million Gen Zs not in employment, education or training, earlier intervention is essential to connect them to the world of work.
“The longer they are allowed to drift away from employment the harder it becomes. By linking the government’s Youth Guarantee schemes to LSIPs, which have strategic oversight of their local economies, a pathway into work can be created.“
The housing market has entered a holding phase. The long-term trajectory of interest rates remains unclear, leading many potential buyers to hold off on purchasing until the economic outlook becomes clearer. Prices are yet to pick up at any great rate this year, with the Halifax House Price recording only a 0.6% year-on-year rise in June. A monthly rise of 0.2% reflects a market that is stable but lacking any real momentum.
Affordability remains a significant constraint on the market. Although mortgage rates have eased slightly in recent months as lenders compete for business, they remain high enough to keep many potential buyers on the sidelines. First-time buyers, in particular, continue to struggle to save for larger deposits. As a result, demand remains steady rather than strong, helping to keep house price growth modest.
Although lenders have introduced more flexible affordability assessments and expanded the availability of higher loan-to-value mortgages, many prospective buyers are still forced to postpone home ownership. Given the economy’s current lacklustre state, any improvement in affordability will be gradual rather than dramatic.
Significant regional differences remain. House prices continue to rise more quickly in most northern regions of the UK than in London and the South East, where higher property values and borrowing costs have made it increasingly difficult for buyers to enter the market. By contrast, relatively lower prices and better value for money in northern regions are supporting demand, despite the wider pressures facing the housing market.
The housing market is likely to strengthen only modestly in the second half of 2026, with transaction volumes picking up more quickly than prices as competition among mortgage lenders supports demand. Over the year as a whole, prices are expected to post low single-digit growth. Much depends on the direction of the UK economy – and more specifically, monetary policy. What is clear is that there is no sign of a house price boom on the horizon!
